The answer is complicated. A number of forces are coming into play, and a shortage of timber species seems inevitable for the near term. We project a shortage for at least 2-3 years.
Harvests have been strong, prices have been good and housing construction is slow (but has been gradually creeping up). The oversupply in the commercial pipelines has long been cleared out, and some large timber companies have been harvesting, as well as a good number of smaller operations.
However, replanting requirements are strict; some have not located trees soon enough, and have pushed the planting into a second (and sometimes subsequent) year(s). Permission is generally granted to delay planting when a good faith effort can be documented. A purchase order or confirmed order with a paid deposit is usually enough. This “doubling up” of needs is causing much of the early season shortages.
Christmas trees have been in an oversupply production mode, but that is changing. Christmas tree growers who were dumping oversized trees became wary, and under planted. Then, the market began to change. Although not all seed sources are suitable for Christmas trees, the north Willamette Valley and Puget Sound areas are top choices. Normal Christmas tree density is nearly four times forestry rates.
Seed production has been low. Conifers typically go through 710 year seed cycles; the seed will be abundant in a particular year, and then seed production is moderate to very low for several years. The seed companies and nurseries know this, and collect what is practical in the bumper crop year, and pick additional when the seed yield is sufficient to be profitable. We are at the end of a long cycle. The 2015 cone crop failed, and seed inventories were near depletion. Many nurseries self rationed seed for high demand areas, hoping to stretch supplies until new seed was available. Orchard production of seed is somewhat more reliable because some of the processes are manipulated, but orchard seed is more expensive; as much as $2,400/pound. This more expensive seed is often greenhouse grown to P1 format to maximize yield. In 2016 there was a good cone/seed crop in the wild but it will be 2019 before the first P-1 or 2-0 are ready to out-plant.
Nursery production space has also declined. At least three timber oriented mega nurseries discontinued outside sales, and dedicated the space to internal production. The closure of several Pacific NW private nurseries comes down to one word: profitability. While the price of trees may seem high, there was not enough profit in the business for several smaller nurseries and at least five good sized private nurseries have recently closed.
That situation isn’t likely to change soon. Field production requires special sandy soil, irrigation capacity and several pieces of specialty equipment. In our case, equipment is imported and multiple copies are usually needed in case of breakdown in the middle of harvest. The packing rooms and refrigeration are hundreds of thousands of dollars and labor is difficult and costly. After two to three years of inputs, a tree sells for well under $1 (less than 50¢ in most cases). If there is an expensive disaster (i.e: weather damage, overproduction of unwanted material, or any sort of surprise), recovery can be very difficult, and these expensive startup costs keep new growers from entering. With these expenses and challenges, crops that can be mechanically harvested (such as hazelnuts or blueberries) might appear more attractive to anyone comparing options.
Weather sometimes impacts seedling quality or yield; this is not a problem every year, but with the above challenges, any reduction due to any negative weather certainly adds to the shortage.
What can be done?
Plan ahead this should be obvious by now, but planning ahead means different things to different people. Anyone with a forest in an area that is on the edge of the Willamette Valley (and everyone in eastern Oregon) needs to communicate with the nursery at least two years ahead. Forests in typical local communities should have trees ordered 918 months ahead of planting. Communicating with the nursery when harvest is being considered, just underway, or just after completion is best.
Be flexible and consider alternate formats; while the 20 is large, efficient and cost effective, P1 are strong and only a few cents more. Plugs may be available for a few cents less; while smaller and possibly needing extra care, they are easy to plant and can be produced in a single year, which might save the day. Consider alternate species; Western Red Cedar is especially hard to get, but it actually establishes better after the Douglas Fir has been planted. Consider leaving open space, and planting cedars at a later date when there is a bit of shade. Red Alder, Coast Redwood or Valley Ponderosa Pine are interesting and can have some (if limited) value. A few Noble Fir planted in a sunny spot can yield Christmas trees for family and friends. Ask to be on late season wait lists for overruns or cancellations.
Take care of the new planting this seems obvious, but it’s easy to turn the job over to the tree planters, or to walk away after planting day is done and not look back. Oregon has experienced two consecutive hot, dry summers. If new trees have to be found after the job is done, it’s expensive, discouraging and contributes to the shortages. Prepare the site, make absolutely certain the trees are planted properly, and keep competition down for at least two to three years. Consider root dips, physical weed barriers and water. Consider nets or tubes to abate deer.
Root dips are usually purchased dry and mixed with water on planting day. They cost around $25 per pound, and a pound will treat 5,000 10,000 trees. Only mix enough for the current work, and keep the rest on hand for a future job. The idea is to make a slurry to cover the roots; then, the product attracts moisture during rain or fog, releasing it in the root zone during dry weather. It can rehydrate in the next rain and repeat the release weeks later. A word of warning: tree planters don’t like the mess, and may not be efficient in the dipping process unless you are there to monitor and help. They will probably charge extra to apply it.
Physical barriers to keep weeds down and moisture available are common in other applications (i.e: landscape bark dust). Paper mats are commercially available to tuck around the trees. One idea from dry Grants Pass was to use cheap paper plates as a barrier drill a hole in the center, slice from one edge to the center hole and slip a plate, face up, around each tree. The plates funnel any rain, keep the root zone cool and the ground moisture trapped, and provides a small amount of weed suppression around each tree. One customer claims survival increased from 64% to 98%. Of course, this process is more work but so is replanting.
Proper planting is imperative. Pick up the trees the day before planting and keep them out of the sun. Plant them on cool, mild or even foggy days. Take wet towels to the field to cover any exposed roots in open bags. Place a few trees in a planting bag or bucket with 6” of water, and take out only the tree to be planted. Get it into the ground with all roots directed downward and with the root zone barely covered with soil. NEVER let the roots dry. Recheck after hard freezes for heaving. Control weeds.
Native Shrubs and Alternate Forestry Trees
Native shrubs are surprisingly hard to grow! Due to a limited number of large scale buyers, most are grown on contract, so availability varies. Natives can be included for streambank protection, erosion control, animal enhancement, auxiliary harvests (i.e: floral/ Christmas greens, medicinal roots, mosses) or just for fun and beauty. Some have edible berries, but are rarely tasty. Most aren’t poisonous.
Native shrubs are nice along paths, roadways or picnic areas where blooms can be enjoyed. Native trees should be planted where they won’t reduce commercial harvest tree yields, and where they can be accessed for any alternate uses.
Indian Plum: Small tree, grows in very wet soil, early lime green leaf. Early blooms are delicate and orchid-like, often cucumber scented.
Red Flowering Currant: Fluorescent pink flowers in drooping clusters in early spring. Thee benefit from shearing every 35 years.
Salal: Leaves have commercial floral value. Sala will grow under Douglas Fir on forest edges or sunny spots.
Red Osier Dogwood: Red stems in winter make nice contrast to snow. Works well in floral arrangements.
Black Twinberry: Yellow tubular flowers give way to red bracts with twin, centered, black berries. It appears to bloom twice with different flowers. Attractive to birds for food.
Cascara: A small tree, the bark is still used in laxatives. The black berries attract birds. Cascara as interesting, deep green waffle indented leaves.
Noble Fir: Needs sunny and very well drained soil. Used for Christmas trees they also make excellent boughs for wreaths and Christmas decorations.
Incense Cedar: Dense evergreen foliage, yellow pollen buds at Christmas. Use in wreaths, garland and table decorations. Yellow tipped branches may have commercial value, even in small quantities.
Grand Fir: Fragrant foliage, Christmas trees.
Scotch Pine, Ponderosa Pine: Accents for wreaths and garland, possible cones later.
Western Red Cedar, Port Orford Cedar: Lightweight foliage for garlands, accents in wreaths or table decorations.
There’s been a good market for boughs, but consider commercial use carefully. The best boughs are high elevation, and buyers usually want large scale quantities. It’s hard to double a family sized timber operation with a commercial bough project, but they are very nice to have on hand for family and friends and to add enjoyment to the overall forest experience. They can provide enough material for a small custom wreath business.
